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Sunday March 24th 2019Tim Candler9

 

    On this Sunday in March 2019 pundits on both Left and Right who earn their pay by fermenting outrage in the USA are holding their breath as they scrabble around hunting down the twists and turns of interpretations. Historians might also be marking their diaries, making a note of where they were and what they might have had for breakfast. But some of us, through the cause of the past couple of years, might have maintained a more stoic resistance to the idea of a savior of any kind, a White Horse remains a banker's Black Swan, a much easier thing to say before a species of Black Swan was actually discovered in Western Australia, they're an interesting monogamous breed and as it happens one quarter of those monogamous relationships are homosexual relationships.

 

Past

     Then in the background there's a whisper, in the tealeaves an inverted curve, which is when the yields on short term debt are higher than the yields on long term debt. It's a whisper that raises an eyebrow maybe three and after a couple of months of inversion in this curve you're talking thousands of raised eyebrows, along with muttering as the older minds recall the past history of the inverted curve, where they were what they had for breakfast, and it's a rich often flawed tapestry out of which patterns emerge. In buying and selling of the future, over confidence can become a reckless ebullience. In buying and selling the inverted curve last happened in 2018, didn't last long and then it was gone. In Politics, fortunately, inverted curves are equally sobering.  

 

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